Group Play, Second Round

I think the World Cup is the only thing I share with 1 billion people---other than the sun and the stars and the atmosphere and the planet.

We are well into the second phase of group play, with Groups A and B finishing their second games (MEX just upset FRA!). Everything is possible, but the situation is evolving rapidly. There will be a clear picture of the rankings, standings and possibilities for advancement in the next few days.

Viewers will also transition. Some fans will become even more interested in the particulars of the development of the tournament. Others will increasingly only want to watch the games that matter--- those matches between the very top teams because it is good soccer, and to see who emerges as the winner. Many obsessed observers (present company included) may really really really want to watch every minute but will be increasingly feeling the pressure of our responsibilities to work and home. So we have to make up from the week of 'real life' we just skipped, and possibly bank enough credit toward the next two weeks as the field narrows toward the final.

In any event we are going to know quite a bit more by June 22, when the final, third phase of group play commences. In the meantime the schedule gets a little back hard to follow. As I explained in a previous post, the first team in each group plays the third, and the second plays the 4th (i.e. England v. Algeria and USA v. Slovenia). But the precise timing can be less than linear so one needs to pay attention every day.

My recommendations for good games:

Friday 6/18 @ 7:30AM ET Germany v. Serbia

Saturday 6/19 @ 2:30PM ET Cameroon v. Denmark (All the games are good on Saturday…but if you only have time for one that's probably your best bet. The Netherlands play Japan at 7:30AM which will also be a good game although I expect The Netherlands will win efficiently.)

Sunday 6/20 @Brazil v. Ivory Coast @ 2:30PM ET

Monday 6/21 @ Portugal v. North Korea @7:30AM ET

By the end of the day Monday (6/21) the standings in each group will be sufficiently developed so that we can make educated predictions about the stakes of the remaining 16 games of group play.

So far, the major surprise is Switzerland’s victory of Spain. If Switzerland can beat Spain, then Switzerland should probably manage to beat the other two teams in the group, Honduras and Chile, as they are ranked far below Spain (but then again every team is ranked below Spain, except Brazil). The big problem here for Spain is that if it takes the second place in Group H, it will face (probably) Brazil in the Round of 16, rather than in the final. That is, of course, unless Brazil is upset by either Portugal or the Ivory Coast in the next games of group play.

Greece managed to beat Nigeria for the full 3 points--- I thought they were going down, until that unfortunate red card against Nigeria’s Sani Kaita. Fair call, but it is a bummer when bad behavior so profoundly influences the outcome of the tournament. You could see Kaita regretted his foul immediately—he left the field with his shirt pulled over his head in shame.