Schedule and Scenarios

If the French team's mutiny grows into a full-on work-stoppage (in the great tradition of the French public sector strike), RSA could very well be the winners. The host team needs to beat France, and beat them good to make up for a -2 goal deficit. The leaks from the French locker-room suggest serious discord, and raise the exciting possibility of a RSA upset and advancement into the second round. French players, stand up for your labor rights---workers of the world unite! And go RSA!

Entering this third and final stage of group play (June 22-June 25), fully 30 of the 32 teams have a shot at advancing. Granted, some of the teams, such as South Africa and Honduras, have a decidedly 'long' shot at advancing, but it is still theoretically possible. Only Cameroon and North Korea have been eliminated (although they still play their third and final matches). Brazil and The Netherlands will advance, but whether as the top or second in the group is to be determined.

The schedule changes this week. Instead of three games (shown on Eastern Time at 7:30AM, 10AM, and 2:30PM), there will be four games for four days. The bummer is that games will be shown simultaneously (two at 10:00AM and two at 2:30PM) so that one has to choose.

So on Tuesday, June 22nd, the schedule is:

10AM, Group A:

FRA v. RSA
MEX v. URU

2:30PM, Group B:

ARG v. GRE
NIG v. KOR

Groups play the third (final) game at the same time, as the outcome of one game might have an impact on the other.

Lots of excitement in the next few days, including:

*Will Mexico and Uruguay play for a tie so they can both advance?

*Will Nigeria rally and knock out South Korea with sufficient goals to advance (with a little help from Argentina?)

And (my favorite)

*Will the US/English rivalry be settled by a coin toss?


For the detail oriented reader, the below discussion of EVERY groups' complete possible scenarios has been cut-n-pasted from ESPN.com:


GROUP A

Uruguay advances with:
(a) Wins group with win or tie versus Mexico
(b) Loss and France-South Africa tie
(c) Loss and winner of France-South Africa does not make up tiebreakers

Mexico advances with:
(a) Win group with win versus Uruguay
(b) Tie versus Uruguay
(c) Loss and France-South Africa tie
(d) Loss and winner of France-South Africa doesn't make up tiebreaker

France/South Africa advance with:
(a) Win and and make up tiebreaker on loser of Mexico-Uruguay
(b) Both are out with a tie or a Mexico-Uruguay tie

GROUP B

Argentina advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus Greece
(b) South Korea tie/loss versus Nigeria
(c) Loss as long as both South Korea and Greece do not make up tiebreakers

South Korea advances with:
(a) Win versus Nigeria and Greece does not either (1) win by greater margin, or (2) win by same margin and score 2+ more goals
(b) Tie and Greece tie/loss

Greece advances with:
(a) Win versus Argentina and South Korea tie/loss
(b) Win by greater margin than South Korea
(c) Win by same margin as South Korea and score 2+ more goals
(d) Tie and South Korea loss
(e) Win by 3+ goals

Nigeria advances with:
(a) Win versus South Korea and Argentina win

GROUP C

USA advances with:
(a) Win versus Algeria on Wednesday
(b) Tie and Slovenia-England tie IF England does not outscore USA by 2+ goals
(c) Tie and England loss

Slovenia advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus England
(b) Loss AND USA tie vs Algeria
(c) Loss and Algeria win as long as Algeria doesn't make up tiebreakers*

England advances with:
(a) Win versus Slovenia
(b) Tie AND USA-Algeria tie AND outscore USA by 3 goals

Algeria advances with:
(a) Win versus USA AND Slovenia win/tie versus England
(b) Win versus USA AND Slovenia loss versus England AND makes up tiebreakers on Slovenia

*Note: If the U.S. draws with Algeria and England draws with Slovenia, and England scores exactly two more goals than the U.S., the U.S. and England would be even on all tiebreakers for second place. The tie would be broken by drawing lots ... aka, a coin flip.

GROUP D

The simplest scenarios are that Ghana, Germany and Serbia all advance with a win. Australia must win and get help.

Ghana advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus Germany
(b) Loss and Australia-Serbia tie IF Serbia does not make up tiebreakers
(c) Loss and Australia win IF Australia does not make up tiebreakers (Australia is way behind on goal differential)

Germany advances with:
(a) Win versus Ghana
(b) Tie and Serbia-Australia tie IF Serbia does not make up tiebreakers
(c) Tie and Australia win IF Australia does not make up tiebreakers

Serbia advances with:
(a) Win versus Australia
(b) Tie and Ghana win
(c) Tie and Ghana-Germany tie AND make up tiebreakers on Germany

Australia advances with:
(a) Win versus Serbia and Ghana win
(b) Win and Germany win and make up tiebreakers on Ghana
(c) Win and Ghana-Germany tie and make up tiebreakers on Germany (not likely)

GROUP E

Netherlands has advanced. Netherlands wins the group with:
(a) Win or a tie versus Cameroon
(b) Loss AND a Denmark-Japan tie
(c) Loss IF the Denmark-Japan winner does not make up tiebreakers

Japan advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus Denmark

Japan wins group with:
(a) Win AND a Netherlands loss AND by making up tiebreakers on Netherlands

Denmark advances with:
(a) Win versus Japan

Denmark wins group with:
(a) Win AND a Netherlands loss AND by making up tiebreakers on Netherlands

Cameroon has been eliminated.

GROUP F

Paraguay advances with:
(a) Win/tie versus New Zealand
(b) Loss AND Italy tie verus Slovakia
(c) Loss and Slovakia win as long as Slovakia doesn't make up tiebreakers

Italy advances with:
(a) Win versus Slovakia
(b) Tie and New Zealand loss
(c) Tie AND Paraguay-New Zealand tie IF Italy outscores New Zealand

New Zealand advances with:
(a) Win versus Paraguay
(b) Tie AND Italy-Slovakia tie IF New Zealand outscores Italy

Slovakia advances with:
(a) Win versus Italy AND Paraguay win/tie versus New Zealand
(b) Win versus Italy AND Paraguay loss versus New Zealand AND make up tiebreakers versus Paraguay

GROUP G

Brazil has advanced. Wins group with:
(a) Win or tie versus Portugal

Portugal advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus Brazil
(b) Loss IF Ivory Coast does not win AND make up goal difference

Ivory Coast advances with:
(a) Win versus North Korea AND Portugal loss AND make up goal difference

North Korea has been eliminated.

GROUP H

Chile advances with:
(a) Win or tie versus Spain (also wins group)
(b) Loss and Switzerland tie or loss
(c) Loss and Switzerland win and maintain tiebreakers over Switzerland

Spain advances with:
(a) Win versus Chile
(b) Tie and Switzerland tie or loss
(c) Loss and Honduras win and maintain tiebreakers over Switzerland and Honduras

Switzerland advances with:
(a) Win and Spain tie or loss
(b) Win and Spain win and make up tiebreakers on Chile
(c) Tie and Spain loss
(d) Loss and Spain loss and hold tiebreakers over Spain and Honduras

Honduras advances with:
(a) Win and Chile win and make up tiebreakers on Spain and Switzerland